Many economists expect catastrophic consequences if any country exits the euro. However, during the past century 69 countries have departed from currencies without experiencing major problems. The mechanics of currency breakups are complicated but feasible. In a very simple to understand why and Jonathan Tepper explains how the euro would break up, what lessons there are from previous currency breakups, and what the likely consequences would be.
Economists are terrible at predicting recessions. In fact, 9 out of 10 economists missed the last four recessions. Economists miss recessions because they focus on all of the wrong things. In a refreshing look at the way economists work and how economic forecasts are made, Jonathan Tepper offers a forward looking view on where the economy has come from, where it is, and more importantly where it is going.
The Debt Supercycle - when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good: 1) restructure the debt or 2) reduce it through austerity measures.
Tepper details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. Jonathan Tepper reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions and reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies. Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Jonathan Tepper provides a framework for making those choices.