Simon Rabinovitch

Featured Keynote Program

Opinions about China’s economy are, as ever, polarised. The bullish view is that it has entered a ‘new normal’ of slower but better-quality growth, with the government guiding it along a clear path of reform. The bearish view is that the economy is on the brink of a crisis, signalled by stockmarket turmoil, currency depreciation and capital outflows. It is easy to say that the truth must lie somewhere between these two extremes. But which is closer to being right? This presentation will tackle that question by challenging six prominent myths, three from each side of the debate. Bears are wrong about the nature of the slowdown; wrong about the mendacity of official data; and wrong about the economy’s potential. Bulls, though, place too much faith in China’s reforms; in its ability to solve its debt problems; and in its trajectory as yet another Asian growth story. Once these myths are cleared away, how should we view China and its prospects? And what are the major risks – both upside and downside – in the coming year?