The thesis of Ian Morrison’s The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change) is that most businesses in most industries are going along quite nicely on their first curve (their core business) where they make all their profit and revenue. Then along comes a second curve – a new business or completely new way of doing business – that threatens to replace the first curve. The second curve is driven by the confluence of three powerful driving forces: new technologies, such as the Internet; new consumers, who are smarter, more affluent, more skeptical and more demanding than the previous generation; and new markets, such as China, with its 1.2 billion consumers. The challenge is to gauge how fast the second curve will take over and develop strategy accordingly. All of the current profit is on the First Curve, all of the future growth is on the Second Curve. But there is a natural human tendency to overestimate the impact of phenomena in the short run, and underestimate it in the long run. The key is to understand and manage the velocity of change.

With the historic passage of healthcare reform legislation, the American healthcare system looks to the future. The full impact of the new legislation will not be felt until 2014 and beyond, but in the meantime, all healthcare stakeholders must deal with “Life in the Gap” before new provisions are implemented. At the same time, all healthcare stakeholders must prepare for the new emerging reality of health care reform and try to determine what “Life in the Game” will be like in a reformed system in 2014 and beyond. Organizations and individuals need to be flexible to adjust to additional modifications in the reform agenda, including the push for more widespread reimbursement reform, the growth in transparency and accountability, and the relentless quest for value in healthcare. This presentation will focus on the political, economic, and strategic context of change in healthcare, describe the possible scenarios we face and examine how the various actors are preparing for the future. It will identify the leadership challenges and opportunities that lie ahead and will provide strategic insights on how organizations and individuals can flourish in the future.