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The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change

The thesis of Ian Morrison’s The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change) is that most businesses in most industries are going along quite nicely on their first curve (their core business) where they make all their profit and revenue. Then along comes a second curve – a new business or completely new way of doing business – that threatens to replace the first curve. The second curve is driven by the confluence of three powerful driving forces: new technologies, such as the Internet; new consumers, who are smarter, more affluent, more skeptical and more demanding than the previous generation; and new markets, such as China, with its 1.2 billion consumers. The challenge is to gauge how fast the second curve will take over and develop strategy accordingly. All of the current profit is on the First Curve, all of the future growth is on the Second Curve. But there is a natural human tendency to overestimate the impact of phenomena in the short run, and underestimate it in the long run. The key is to understand and manage the velocity of change.

The Future of the Healthcare Marketplace

Healthcare is in a state of flux. Managed care faltered as it came under increasing scrutiny by the media, the consumer, and the regulators. Healthcare costs are rising and the burden is increasingly being shifted to consumers. Large scale vertical integration in healthcare has not taken place, rather we have seen massive horizontal consolidation of pharmaceutical companies, health plans, hospital systems, and to a lesser extent physician groups. Increased consumerism amplified by the internet creates new opportunities and new challenges. The industry is looking for a new direction and a new vision, but we fall prey to fads, as organizations are stretched thin by the roller coaster of change in management philosophy, reimbursement, and medical technology. This presentation will focus on the political, economic, and strategic context of change in healthcare and examine how the various actors are preparing for the future. It will identify the leadership challenges and opportunities that lie ahead and will provide strategic insights on how organizations and individuals can flourish in the new millennium in healthcare.