Advantage of the Underdog

October 02, 2012

Edward Klein

NYT's Bestseller Author, Editor and Public Speaker

Article courtesy of The New York Post

"I will not make age an issue of this campaign; I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

That was 73-year-old Ronald Reagan, delivering a zinger against his much younger Democratic opponent, Walter Mondale, at their second presidential debate in 1984. Reagan had looked befuddled in the first debate and wasn’t expected to do much better in the second round, but with his memorable quip about age, he scored a knockout punch and went on to win a landslide victory in the November election.

Such remarkable turnarounds have been crucial in several elections since the first presidential debate in 1960 between an untested John F. Kennedy and a debate-savvy Richard Nixon. Kennedy’s cool telegenic charm was a major reason he squeaked out a narrow victory over Nixon at the polls.

Despite conventional political wisdom that says Mitt Romney has little chance of winning this week’s face-off with Barack Obama at the University of Denver, I think it’s possible we may be in for another surprising upset. The Obama-Romney debate — the first of three — will focus on domestic policy. The moderator, PBS “News Hour” anchor Jim Lehrer, will open each of six 15-minute segments with a question. After each candidate responds, the other will have the chance for a two-minute rebuttal.

Recent polls have shown President Obama pulling ahead of Gov. Romney decisively in many key swing states.

As a result, most political analysts believe that this first debate will be one of the most important in recent presidential history — a do-or-die moment for the Republican challenger. The question on everyone’s mind will be whether Obama can turn on his famous charm and increase his lead or whether Romney will find a way to pierce the president’s armor and come out looking like a winner.

Both campaigns have been trying hard to lower expectations for their candidate. Obama’s aides have been spinning a story with the media that the president has been so busy doing his job that he’s gotten less debate practice than Romney.

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who has played the role of Obama in Romney’s debate prep, has a different point of view. “[Romney] hasn’t had a debate against a Democrat [since] 2002, when he ran for governor,” Portman said. “So I think Barack Obama will be formidable.”

According to the latest polls, an overwhelming 59% of Americans believe that Obama will win the first debate. That may sound like bad news for Romney, but being the perceived underdog might actually work to his advantage because, as a general rule, the candidate who exceeds expectations wins the debate.

Equally important is that this will be the first time during the campaign that Romney will appear on stage with Obama. They will be separated only by a few feet and treated by the moderator as equals. By that very fact, it will put Romney on an equal footing and give him the opportunity to be seen as presidential.

How will the television audience perceive these two men? Obama, with his proud bearing and cool demeanor, fits the job description of a celebrity president, but without the crutch of a TelePrompTer, he is often at a loss for words. Romney, on the other hand, has been tested in the crucible of nearly two dozen Republican debates and has developed skills that are frequently underrated.

All this may sound superficial, but it is actually vitally important. The debates come late in the campaign, when most people have already made up their minds. Therefore, the main target is the 6% to 10% of undecided voters who aren’t partial to the ideology of either party and can be swayed by their visceral reaction to a candidate.

Finally, the consensus of most political analysts is that Obama, as the frontrunner, has merely to hold his own and reiterate his well-known policy positions to win the debate, while Romney has to draw blood.

One of the frequent criticisms of Romney from fellow Republicans is that he has run a lackluster campaign. People have questioned whether he has the fire in his belly to be president. Is Romney afraid to take off the gloves and attack Obama where he is weakest — on the domestic economy and America’s unraveling power abroad?

In my view, Romney’s critics overlook the fact that he did not hesitate to launch brutal frontal attacks against Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum during the Republican primary debates. In fact, Romney always appears at his best when his back is to the wall.

Thus the question is not whether Romney has it in him to attack Obama, but whether he has the skill to exploit Obama’s reputation for being sensitive to criticism.

In fact, it may all come down to whether Romney can get under the president’s skin with well-aimed barbs and crack Obama’s composure. Don’t bet against it.

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