Dan Gardner

Featured Books

Lecturing on these and other important topics for clients ranging from governments to NGOs and major corporations, Dan Gardner has enlightened and entertained audiences around the world.

To use the terminology of Philip Tetlock, a renowned psychologist at the University of California's Haas School of Business, George Soros is a classic "fox." Tetlock distinguishes between two types of thinkers -- "hedgehogs" and "foxes." Hedgehogs insist on simplicity and certainty. They see problems through a single analytical lens. And they are very confident. They know the answer. Foxes are much more comfortable with complexity and uncertainty. They'll use lots of analytical lenses to look at problems, and ask other people what they see. They are not nearly so confident as hedgehogs. They may know the answer, but they're never sure. The foxes came out on top every time. Styles of thinking are not innate. They can be learned. Gardner explains how.

The media are partly to blame for not holding experts to account when their predictions fail. But more fundamentally, the answer lies in psychology and the brain's profound aversion to uncertainty: We believe because we want to believe. But we don't have to be suckers for soothsayers. If we understand the psychology that compels us to believe, we can learn to distinguish between reasonable forecasts and the tales of confident experts. And that can help us make good decisions that leave us better prepared for the future. No matter what happens.

We are by far the safest, healthiest, and wealthiest people who ever lived. But we sure don't act like it. If we are so safe, why are we so afraid? Gardner demonstrates that the media's portrayal of the risks we face is consistently wrong. He explains how politicians, activists and corporations promote fear to win votes, generate support and make money. And he delves into the latest scientific research to explain how the human brain decides what is worth worrying about and what is not, and why it is often wrong.