Margaret Heffernan
CEO, Entrepreneur, Author and Columnist, The Huffington Post and Inc.com
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Margaret Heffernan
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Current: TED: The Sound Of Things Not Being Said
Time 08:23
Margaret Heffernan
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Leading Through Uncertainty
Management used to be a 3-legged stool: forecast—plan—execute.
But now our ability to forecast has become dangerously short term. Experts estimate that the very best forecasters can see no further than 400 days out; for the rest of us, the time horizon is a mere 150 days. The 3-leged stool is no longer secure.
In the face of uncertainty, how should leaders think about the future? What can they do now? What kind of long term thinking is worthwhile and useful? What are the perspectives and processes that illuminate opportunities? Not knowing the future could leave leaders feeling helpless, but they aren’t. They simply need a different mindset and different processes with which to confront a future where little is clear but much is possible.
Margaret Heffernan has watched leaders rise to the challenge – or duck it. What can we learn today that will make us stronger tomorrow?
In this presentation, Dr. Heffernan shares the research in her new book UNCHARTED: How to Navigate the Future as well as her current work with major institutions around the world.
Wilful Blindness
The biggest mistakes we make in life and work aren’t caused by total unknowns but by information we could have and should have but somehow manage not to have. The law calls this willful blindness because we had an opportunity for knowledge which was shirked. Examples are all around us: the banking crash, Deepwater Horizon, VW emissions, Wells Fargo, Boeing.
How does this happen? But there are also examples of willful blindness in which great opportunities for innovation were missed: how did Google miss social networking? Why didn’t hotels take Airbnb seriously? Examples abound. So what are the forces at work, in us and in corporate cultures, that allow willful blindness to flourish – and what can we do to minimize it.
Using a wide array of real life examples, Margaret Heffernan dissects the causes of this ubiquitous phenomenon and identifies how we can all see better.
Collaboration
A Bigger Prize
Around the world, organizations strive to develop a collaborative workforce. They know that diverse minds, working together, will see more opportunities and identify risk better. But collaboration is difficult. For the most part, we’ve been brought up to compete with each other – at school, university, for jobs – and great collaboration requires a great deal more than open plan offices. So what are the organizations that do this well and what are the routines and cultures that develop and enhance people who can work together effectively for years on end.
A Bigger Prize won the Transmission Prize in 2015 for the great communication of important ideas. Dr Heffernan has talked about this work to broadcasters, sports teams, large and small corporations, universities and business schools.
UNCHARTED
How To Think About An Unpredictable Future
We are all brought up to plan: for families, careers, businesses. But planning requires that we can forecast the future – and today that is harder than ever. Experts in prediction argue that the very best they can do is forecast 400 days out. For those less gifted, the horizon is 150 days. Most forecasts are propaganda or wishful thinking. Models fail because they leave out what later matters and history doesn’t repeat itself. So what do we do in the light of the fact that we don’t know what the future holds?
Companies that don’t want to be stuck in incrementalism do experiments, testing what the future could look like. In doing so, they find options and opportunities no amount of planning would surface. Imaginative scenarios of possible futures build a more robust culture and reveal possibilities. Institutions like CERN show how it is possible to run successful organizations even when mired in uncertainty and ambiguity. Artists build work that remains vital and meaningful across generations; we can learn from them. Survivors of existential crisis show the capabilities we must hold in reserve. In an age of uncertainty, preparedness is a more productive mindset than planning.
Uncharted is being published in February 2020 in the UK and September 2020 in the US. Be prepared….